TV, video revenues to remain flat through 2020
Despite the emergence of a plethora of new TV and video distribution platforms and services, overall revenue growth will remain sluggish for several years says a report from The Diffusion Group.
According to The Future of TV Monetisation report, since 2004 overall TV and video spending has risen just 9% from $195 billion to $213 billion in 2013, representing a mere 1% CAGR. Moreover, TDG expects TV and video revenue over the next five years to be much like the previous five years in terms of inflation-adjusted dollars, running primarily flat with growth rates of business and consumer spending for TV and video having remained negligible since 2010.
This comes despite the maturity of TV everywhere and pay-TV video-on-demand (VOD) which while showing promising in-market results, are still in TDG's eyes are relatively nascent and taking shape in a business landscape known for changing very slowly.
"Total TV and video spending rose only 3% from 2010 to 2013," explained report author and TDG senior advisor Bill Niemeyer. "It's like turning a super tanker while you are rebuilding it. It takes a long time to take new platforms from first in-market trials to fully realised revenue-generating ecosystems. There will be revenue winners and losers during the next five years, but the total TV/video dollar pool will stay the same. Even as they implement TV everywhere and VOD, operators and content providers have to make key decisions now about going forward on new advanced techniques and technologies. These will be critical for long term growth, but will not begin to generate significant revenues until after 2020."
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